Searching for the name of "Peng Xiaofeng" on Google, there can be more than 70,000 news about him, from the Forbes 2007 China Rich List to the sixth, to the "stock gate" incident, Peng Xiaofeng's fame and worth with him The LDK of the company and the rising photovoltaic industry are skyrocketing.
Taking the opportunity of the "4th China Solar-Grade Silicon and Photovoltaic Power Generation Seminar" held in Shanghai in June, the author interviewed Peng Xiaofeng, CEO of LDK Solar Co., Ltd.
Reporter: In the face of China's current polysilicon production frenzy, Trina Solar announced in April this year that it would suspend the $1 billion polysilicon project. How do you view the future of the global polysilicon market?
Peng Xiaofeng: The current profit margin of the polysilicon industry is very high. It is very normal for many people to enter this industry. However, we have also seen that some companies blindly squeeze into the industry without the funds, technology and market. People are worried. Although this market does require a large amount of economical polysilicon, the key point is to implement production technology, funding sources and sales markets; secondly, cost, we see many domestic production plants with production scales of 300 tons, 1,000 tons and 3,000 tons. For the solar market, at least 10,000 tons is the most basic economic scale. Only by achieving such an economic scale can the manufacturing cost of polysilicon be controlled between 15 and 25 US dollars (using the improved Siemens method). If the cost of using silane method can be reduced to 15 to 20 US dollars. If the above conditions are met, I think it is a good choice to invest in the polysilicon industry.
For many people who want to enter the polysilicon industry, two years ago was a good opportunity, it is too late. When everyone is optimistic about an industry swarming, it is often the time to leave the industry, and it is unwise to make investment decisions at this time.
Reporter: How do you view the thin film solar cell market? Will it have an impact on the traditional crystalline silicon solar cell market?
Peng Xiaofeng: There is a misunderstanding on this issue. Film and crystalline silicon solar cells seem to have competition in a broad sense, but this is not the case. Just like water and apple juice, although they are all drinks, there are different markets for different market and crystalline silicon, and more and more battery component manufacturers have several technologies at the same time, producing both thin film batteries. Also produced crystalline silicon cells, such as Suntech, Sharp and so on. In the next decade, crystalline silicon solar cells will still dominate, with a market share of about 70-80%, while the market share of thin-film batteries will gradually increase from less than 5% to more than 20%.
Reporter: SONY recently announced the successful development of a solar cell that does not use silicon materials. The production cost is only one-fifth to one-tenth of that of silicon-containing materials. Do you think that this research and development will affect the polysilicon industry and even photovoltaics? Does the industry have a major impact?
Peng Xiaofeng: The new research and development achievements of the photovoltaic industry are released almost every week. The new research and development results should be viewed from two aspects. First of all, a new technology takes a long process from research and development to industrialization. The current crystalline silicon solar cells have been commercialized for more than half a century since the successful development of Bell Labs in 1953. Second, in terms of materials, silicon is the most abundant element on the earth, and it is the easiest to obtain and has no pollution to the environment.
Reporter: People often say that “the polysilicon industry is a high-energy, high-pollution industry.†Do you agree with this statement?
Peng Xiaofeng: If you go to see foreign big factories, such as Germany's Wacker, they are built in the scenic area, the environment is beautiful, you can't see that there is a polysilicon production plant there, and you can't see pollution and high energy consumption. . In fact, polysilicon production itself is not a high-energy, high-pollution industry. However, most domestic production plants have not yet mastered advanced manufacturing technologies, and even the most basic environmental problems have not been resolved, thus giving people the impression. .
From another point of view, the energy recovery period of polycrystalline silicon solar cells is about one year, that is, one year of solar cell power generation recovers the electricity consumed in manufacturing. According to the normal life of solar cells for 30 years, it is 30 times efficiency. It is a very cost-effective business.
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