China's optical fiber industry is big but not strong

In 2011, for domestic cable companies, it was still a good harvest year. Strategies such as optical network cities, broadband acceleration, and triple play integration stimulated the demand of the domestic cable market. At the same time, the industrial effect of the Japanese earthquake has also brought great benefits to domestic cable manufacturers. Several Sino-Japanese joint venture optical fiber prefabrication Bar manufacturers have been put into production, which has directly boosted the production capacity of domestic self-produced preforms.

According to the data, in 2011, the domestic demand for fiber optic cable was about 98 million core kilometers, which was roughly the same as in 2010, which exceeded the industry’s expectations for the entire 2011 market. At the same time, several major domestic cable manufacturers have become the top ten manufacturers in the global market share.

In 2012, broadband became the biggest hot spot in the industry. Minister Miao Wei of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology proposed to promote the implementation of the "broadband China" strategy as early as the end of last year. By 2015, the urban family will have a bandwidth of 20M and rural households will reach 4M. The further increase of China’s broadband network construction will undoubtedly boost the demand for products and solutions related to broadband construction. It is generally believed that as the basis for the construction of broadband networks, China's optical fiber industry will usher in a "broadband China" development strategy for a great opportunity for development.

However, when people really turned their eyes to the fiber optic cable industry in China, they found that the situation was not optimistic. Although China has the largest scale of fiber optic cable industry in the world, it is influenced by many factors. The situation of being big but not strong has not been fundamentally changed in the long term. Judging from the current market situation, with the full rise of broadband construction, this year's shortage of optical fiber will be a foregone conclusion.

From the perspective of demand, in recent years, under the continuous large-scale construction of China's information and communication networks, especially driven by the construction of 3G networks, optical fiber sales have exceeded 100 million core kilometers, becoming the world's largest optical fiber consumer market. Market analysts predict that this year, in the context of a relatively stable demand for optical fiber in 3G construction, the demand for optical fiber for broadband construction will increase without a doubt, leading to an explosive growth in the optical fiber market.

In the area of ​​broadband construction, although the implementation of the "broadband China" strategy may take some time, operators have already begun to increase the construction of broadband networks. China Telecom’s “Guangjin Retreat” and “Optical Network Cities” strategy is stepping up its implementation; China Unicom’s optical fiber network construction is also stepping up, and the broadband speed trial scope has been expanded; and China Mobile has been strengthening its basic network construction efforts in recent years. , is the largest fiber optic buyer in China, and its subsidiary Tietong’s broadband access business is also advancing. This will undoubtedly further boost the market's demand for optical fiber. In addition, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has set as the key target of this year's work, focusing on the implementation of broadband Internet speed-up projects and implementing the promotion of China's broadband infrastructure and application level. More importantly, many local governments have begun to formulate relevant broadband speed-up targets and have promised to provide policy and other multi-faceted support. All this will effectively speed up the construction of fiber-optic broadband networks around the country, expand the scale of fiber-optic broadband network construction, directly stimulate the development of fiber-optic networks, and stimulate the growth of the fiber-optic market.

In the field of mobile broadband, with the development of mobile Internet services, the volume of mobile data is growing rapidly. Operators will also further expand network construction, including the scale of network construction such as 3G and WLAN, to meet the demand for rapid growth in business volume. At present, China Mobile has taken the lead in starting bids for WLAN equipment. The construction of related projects will also boost the growth of optical fiber demand. In addition, the wireless city construction agreement signed by various operators and local governments is also a strong contributing factor to the growth of optical fiber demand.

In addition, the demand for optical fiber in the industry private network market and the triple play market should not be ignored. With the intensification of China’s informatization construction and the gradual advancement of triple play, the scale of construction of related professional networks is also expanding, and the demand for optical fiber has steadily increased.

Based on the above factors, market experts predict that there will be a new round of explosive growth in optical fiber demand this year, and will continue for quite a long period of time with the implementation of the "broadband China" strategy. Relevant market experts believe that with the demand for optical fiber from related industries such as electricity, the total demand for optical fiber in China's market will approach 150 million core kilometers this year, which will set a record high without any suspense.

So, what is the overall supply capacity of China's optical fiber and cable industry?

It should be noted that China’s optical fiber production capacity has grown rapidly in recent years. Relevant companies are optimistic about the future development prospects of China's optical fiber cable market, and related manufacturers have also continuously expanded their production capabilities. In 2008, the domestic optical fiber production capacity exceeded 70 million core kilometers, exceeded 90 million core kilometers in 2009, and exceeded 100 million core kilometers in 2010. From the perspective of market supply, in 2009, driven by the explosive growth of China’s 3G network construction, fiber supply was in short supply. China’s optical fiber companies have successively expanded production; just in 2011, affected by many factors such as the earthquake in Japan, optical fiber preforms Supply is tight, and the fiber supply gap is around 5 million core kilometers. At the beginning of this year, a new round of expansion of optical fiber production enterprises in China was completed. The current production capacity exceeded 120 million core kilometers, setting a record high.

Judging from the characteristics of China's optical fiber cable industry, due to the low technical threshold, the production capacity of optical cables is obviously excessive. Although optical fiber production capacity is expanding rapidly, it is still limited by the capacity of optical fiber preforms. At present, nearly 50% of optical fiber preforms required for optical fiber production in China rely on imports. This has also become a short board that restricts the further improvement of China's optical fiber production capacity. This year, China's optical fiber production capacity will also increase. Some optical cable companies have begun large-scale investment in optical fiber production. Some optical fiber companies have also further expanded the production capacity of optical fiber preforms. However, these new production capabilities need to have a The process, especially the growth of optical fiber preform production capacity, will be constrained by various factors such as cost, process maturity, etc., and it is impossible to rapidly increase in the short term. Industry insiders estimate that the near 50% dependence on imported optical fiber preforms in China will not change fundamentally in the short term. Therefore, China's optical fiber capacity this year is estimated to be optimistic about 130 million core kilometers, compared with market demand, there is a gap of 15 million core kilometers to 20 million core kilometers, the situation is not optimistic. At present, there are already signs of shortage of optical fibers on the market, and the market price of optical fiber has also apparently rebounded.

In this regard, although related fiber companies have expressed that they will make full preparations to fully expand production to meet market demand and support the development of broadband construction, market experts predict that in the context of explosive demand, in this year's fiber optic cable market, optical fiber The shortage will become a foregone conclusion.


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