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In 2000, we tended to view the Internet through the lens of the industrial era. As a result, it was natural for us to see the Internet as an electronic version of traditional media like newspapers. The most promising approach at the time was the portal model. However, we soon realized that this understanding was flawed. Surprisingly, the most successful companies on the Internet turned out to be BAT (Tencent, Alibaba, and Baidu). After more than a decade immersed in internet thinking, we now tend to use the same mindset to interpret the changes AI might bring, which leads us to only focus on portals and traffic. This is likely a repeat of the mistake made back in 2000.
So, what exactly has the Internet brought us? Over the past 15 years, the Internet has deeply influenced almost every aspect of our lives. But when looking at the details, it's hard to grasp the internal logic of its impact. However, the companies that have emerged from this transformation clearly show how our work and daily lives have changed. When we think about the Internet, we often recall these key players:
1. Tencent – instant messaging, games, finance
2. Alibaba – e-commerce
3. Baidu – search
4. JD.com – e-commerce
5. NetEase – news, games
6. Sina – news, social networks
7. Didi – O2O
8. Ctrip – travel
9. 360 – tools
10. Mafengwo – travel
11. Toutiao – content feeds
There are also niche companies like iQiyi. Even with all these, the number of Internet companies we truly remember is only around 10–20. These can be broadly divided into two categories:
The first category involves creating new digital spaces where people can read, play, chat, etc. Companies like Tencent, Baidu, and Toutiao fall into this group. The second category uses information flow to reshape opportunities, rearrange production factors, and rebuild existing business models. Alibaba, Didi, Ctrip, and others belong here. For example, Alibaba redefines retail, while Didi transforms transportation. This kind of change doesn't alter the core production factors but changes how they're used. On Didi, drivers and cars remain the same, but their usage context changes. This influence stems from the Internet’s inherent technical characteristics—essentially changing how information is stored and delivered.
Creating digital spaces and driving new models via the Internet is nearing completion. By 2017, the most prominent examples were live streaming and shared bikes, but even these couldn’t match the scale of previous giants. After a decade of deep thinking, many believe that model innovation has reached its peak.
So, we can say the Internet has already done its best, and the momentum it generated is slowing down. The future business leaders may no longer be Internet companies. (Of course, powerful Internet firms like Alibaba and Baidu will still thrive; oil wasn’t the main player in the past 30 years, but CNPC remains strong.)
Now, what does AI bring us? Although major Internet companies are pioneers in AI, most of them may misrepresent its role. From an Internet company’s perspective, everything looks like an entrance or traffic source. However, AI’s initial role is likely to drive industrial upgrades rather than disrupt existing platforms or traffic models.
Looking at the impact on cars and travel, the difference between the Internet and AI becomes clear. The Internet transformed the industry by creating platforms like Didi, which aggregates data and streamlines access. However, it doesn’t fundamentally change how taxis operate. In contrast, AI’s impact is deeper—it enables autonomous vehicles, which could redefine the car itself. This isn’t just a software upgrade; it’s a fundamental shift in how vehicles function, similar to the transition from carriages to cars.
In short, the Internet drives model innovation, while AI drives industrial upgrading. This distinction has significant implications. It shifts the core value points from traffic and user acquisition to product quality and real-world application. For instance, developing autonomous vehicles requires building better cars and finding profitable business models within them, not just using them as entry points.
AI’s industrial upgrades won’t be limited to futuristic fields. They’ll permeate everyday areas like cameras, education, and home appliances. In most cases, the value lies in the product itself, not in the platform or portal.
This shift also changes the development path. While the Internet focused mainly on consumer-facing (toC) markets, AI-driven upgrades involve multiple sectors, including government (toG) and business-to-business (toB), alongside toC. This opens up new opportunities for traditional industries.
Recently, I’ve been asked how to evaluate companies. A useful analogy is Hikvision. The key is how much of an industry market a company serves, which determines its growth potential. Internet companies often overlook this, but it’s a huge opportunity for industrial upgrades.
What will future businesses look like? Consider Amazon, which started as an e-commerce company but has increasingly focused on building its own products, such as Echo and Spot. This seems illogical from an e-commerce perspective, yet it reflects a broader strategy. Similarly, Google has taken similar steps, though with less success. These moves suggest a long-term vision.
Imagine a future where robots are everywhere, handling deliveries, rescues, and transport. What commercial model supports this? Will it be a multi-layered system, or will a single company dominate?
Currently, the mobile Internet operates as a multi-layered structure, with different companies providing various services. But the future may trend toward integration, leading to larger, more comprehensive enterprises. The next big players could be combinations like Apple + Amazon.
In this scenario, there may be no pure Internet or product companies. Instead, we'll see end-to-end enterprises operating across different domains. The underlying question is whether the future will favor a federated model or a dominant one.
In summary, AI is hot in 2017, and people tend to look for explosive opportunities like the Internet did. However, the industrial upgrades driven by AI are starting, albeit at a different pace.